- MEANTIME MANY THINGS HAPPENED - I'LL FREEZE MY BLOG - I'LL RETURN SOMETIME LATER THIS YEAR - THANKS FOR YOUR UNDERSTANDING! -
BEST REGARDS
YOUR,
HARRY HOLZER
Wednesday, 24 June 2009
Monday, 26 January 2009
The crisis goes on!
Hi Folks!
It’s once again a long time ago, since I wrote my last post. But as you can see, I had overall right with my forecast. As you can see, many things really set in. But I want to be clear – this doesn’t have something to do with having a crystal ball. The indicators haven’t changed all the years of our free market place. If a crisis comes, it always shows up the similar way. If you want to see them once again listed have a look on my last post.
Regarding my own life, I have been called up from our state to provide them my services. I’d be stupid, if I wouldn’t have taken this chance. Right now it’s a tough time and the most secure job you can have (if this is possible in anyway), is working for the state/your country. By the way, if you should have this opportunity to work for your country also think about, that this crisis will be finished at some time again. So regarding myself, I’ll also start with an education. I’m going to start either by end of 2009 or starting 2010 with the MoM :-D (Master of Management).
It’s our liability to shape our future. Now the time is even more pointing out, that it’s all on you. To give you an idea, in my past years I suffered a lot because of my own failures. Even now, I need to pay my debts and to focus again on my own wealth management. Before, I could fall back on my parents or anyone in my environment – they’d help me. But now, no-one is there to help me out this time…
And to be quite honest, I really enjoy this time, where I need to turn all by myself. It’s all of a sudden so easy to me – it’s always easy, if you haven’t got any other possibilities. ;-)
Now to my saving marks:
(This are just tips for fun or if you’re really fucked, you maybe better use them ;-) )
1) You can hold up longer a lollipop if you don’t rip off the paper.
2) Save toilet paper by dividing the spool into two with a sharp knife.
3) Don’t throw away used q-tips, you can use them to oil squeaking door hinge.
4) If you buy antiquities, don’t forget to take with your own stamp with the label: “made in Taiwan” to bargain a better price…
5) Before eating bread, pump it up with an air pump! (This does just function with white bread)
6) If your toner cartridge is empty, refill it with coffee- or chocolate-powder!
7) Your wristwatch doesn’t function anymore and a repair doesn’t make sense? Prick a hole through the middle where all the needles are hanging up and stock a nail through it – no you can use your watch as a sundial.
8) You haven’t got a coffee filter more? No problem – use old stockings.
So finally to my today’s motto:
Someone who thinks logically provides a nice contrast to the real world. Unknown
It’s once again a long time ago, since I wrote my last post. But as you can see, I had overall right with my forecast. As you can see, many things really set in. But I want to be clear – this doesn’t have something to do with having a crystal ball. The indicators haven’t changed all the years of our free market place. If a crisis comes, it always shows up the similar way. If you want to see them once again listed have a look on my last post.
Regarding my own life, I have been called up from our state to provide them my services. I’d be stupid, if I wouldn’t have taken this chance. Right now it’s a tough time and the most secure job you can have (if this is possible in anyway), is working for the state/your country. By the way, if you should have this opportunity to work for your country also think about, that this crisis will be finished at some time again. So regarding myself, I’ll also start with an education. I’m going to start either by end of 2009 or starting 2010 with the MoM :-D (Master of Management).
It’s our liability to shape our future. Now the time is even more pointing out, that it’s all on you. To give you an idea, in my past years I suffered a lot because of my own failures. Even now, I need to pay my debts and to focus again on my own wealth management. Before, I could fall back on my parents or anyone in my environment – they’d help me. But now, no-one is there to help me out this time…
And to be quite honest, I really enjoy this time, where I need to turn all by myself. It’s all of a sudden so easy to me – it’s always easy, if you haven’t got any other possibilities. ;-)
Now to my saving marks:
(This are just tips for fun or if you’re really fucked, you maybe better use them ;-) )
1) You can hold up longer a lollipop if you don’t rip off the paper.
2) Save toilet paper by dividing the spool into two with a sharp knife.
3) Don’t throw away used q-tips, you can use them to oil squeaking door hinge.
4) If you buy antiquities, don’t forget to take with your own stamp with the label: “made in Taiwan” to bargain a better price…
5) Before eating bread, pump it up with an air pump! (This does just function with white bread)
6) If your toner cartridge is empty, refill it with coffee- or chocolate-powder!
7) Your wristwatch doesn’t function anymore and a repair doesn’t make sense? Prick a hole through the middle where all the needles are hanging up and stock a nail through it – no you can use your watch as a sundial.
8) You haven’t got a coffee filter more? No problem – use old stockings.
So finally to my today’s motto:
Someone who thinks logically provides a nice contrast to the real world. Unknown
Wednesday, 3 December 2008
World finance crisis, the “worldfinancecrisis”
Salutti!
In my last post, I listed some indicators, which also belongs to a finance crisis. And what I expected started to set in. The miss of most economist is, that they can explain you how the crisis or a failure has happened, but they can’t tell you in advance ;-)
Since 1929 the world-market has suffered many crises. They had always similar cycles.
Basically you may list some points:
- economic slowdown
- pessimistic assessment of the economic climate
- downturn of demand
- overfilled stocks
- reduction of overtime, start of reduced working hours
- missing investment
- retirement of production (-facilities)
- falling interests, prices and salaries
- bears (sinking prices)
Do some points already seem familiar to you? Have you already declared some of these points around your environment? Well logically ‘yes’.
What does it mean? Should we panic?
–I always say (mainly around the German speaking Europe):
“You can start to panic, if your croissant in the morning costs you less then 5 cent!”
We’ve got a challenge, and in this challenge there are also hidden opportunities. If you can, you should start to invest now! Invest in shares of companies, which their market value is deeper than the intrinsic value. Last time I offered you some company-names of European houses. But they’re all over the world. For example, you know a company whit plenty of Hi-Tech stocks but right now nobody can afford a large cargo. So they sit on their stocks and their order book is empty – they don’t gain any win, and so their market value at the exchange fall. In fact they’ve got a higher value already because of their stocks! –But the exchange struggle them down, because they just look at their order book… (Very simplified example)
Or if you’ve got really nuts, be self-employed if you lost your job! Remember that the risk to fall is higher then ever, but if you can hold through this crisis, I estimate, that either you’ll find easily a new employer or your own business will set out as soon the crisis is over…
But after all, don’t forget one thing: After a recession comes a depression! From there on, you start again to see light at the end of a tunnel ;-)
So in other words, be always smart in your approach to the market. Handle it in a way like it would be a small child. –It will cry easily but than it will be again happy the moment after. Finally it needs you, but it’s also your responsibility, how you let it grow up.
Right now, I’m self-employed. I’ve got two mandates in the financing sector and try to survive. I’m absolutely certain, if I can go through this phases, an employer who also passed through it will be in need of one’s peers. The question left is: How long will it go? –I expect around end of 2009 start 2010… But I can’t confirm that, it’s just like anything else estimation. No one has got a crystal ball, right?!
Today’s motto: Courage is being scared to death - but saddling up anyway. John Wayne
In my last post, I listed some indicators, which also belongs to a finance crisis. And what I expected started to set in. The miss of most economist is, that they can explain you how the crisis or a failure has happened, but they can’t tell you in advance ;-)
Since 1929 the world-market has suffered many crises. They had always similar cycles.
Basically you may list some points:
- economic slowdown
- pessimistic assessment of the economic climate
- downturn of demand
- overfilled stocks
- reduction of overtime, start of reduced working hours
- missing investment
- retirement of production (-facilities)
- falling interests, prices and salaries
- bears (sinking prices)
Do some points already seem familiar to you? Have you already declared some of these points around your environment? Well logically ‘yes’.
What does it mean? Should we panic?
–I always say (mainly around the German speaking Europe):
“You can start to panic, if your croissant in the morning costs you less then 5 cent!”
We’ve got a challenge, and in this challenge there are also hidden opportunities. If you can, you should start to invest now! Invest in shares of companies, which their market value is deeper than the intrinsic value. Last time I offered you some company-names of European houses. But they’re all over the world. For example, you know a company whit plenty of Hi-Tech stocks but right now nobody can afford a large cargo. So they sit on their stocks and their order book is empty – they don’t gain any win, and so their market value at the exchange fall. In fact they’ve got a higher value already because of their stocks! –But the exchange struggle them down, because they just look at their order book… (Very simplified example)
Or if you’ve got really nuts, be self-employed if you lost your job! Remember that the risk to fall is higher then ever, but if you can hold through this crisis, I estimate, that either you’ll find easily a new employer or your own business will set out as soon the crisis is over…
But after all, don’t forget one thing: After a recession comes a depression! From there on, you start again to see light at the end of a tunnel ;-)
So in other words, be always smart in your approach to the market. Handle it in a way like it would be a small child. –It will cry easily but than it will be again happy the moment after. Finally it needs you, but it’s also your responsibility, how you let it grow up.
Right now, I’m self-employed. I’ve got two mandates in the financing sector and try to survive. I’m absolutely certain, if I can go through this phases, an employer who also passed through it will be in need of one’s peers. The question left is: How long will it go? –I expect around end of 2009 start 2010… But I can’t confirm that, it’s just like anything else estimation. No one has got a crystal ball, right?!
Today’s motto: Courage is being scared to death - but saddling up anyway. John Wayne
Tuesday, 4 November 2008
I like you. People say I’ve got no taste, but I like you.
Hi guys!
Actually I’ve got much news for you, but on the other hand, it’s not really news, rather some impressions I’ve gained in the meantime.
Last weekend my mandate invited me to
Overall I had a very good impression of the whole weekend there, but my honey doesn’t share the same emotional feelings like I do. She’s got the feeling, that I should look further for another job – one that is more substantial as a mandate job – well, probably she’s right. But I’ve to deal with the things I’ve got.
Let’s also talk about the world economic crisis
My own opinion is based on the economical know-how I usurped in my studies. So let’s start with the facts:
- Real estate crisis in the
- The finance and banking areas started to shake in 2008
- Commodity prices all over the world turned down and had a volatile growth/loss within the last months
- Even if it’s not that strong published through the news, the unemployment data in the last months has raised
- The pledging of securities are no longer that distanced from the real money market as it used to be
- Main pledges of securities are countries and banks (incl. funds, insurances, etc…)
- …and many things more…
So what is my summery of all this?
Economics who say the crisis is more or less over and soon the market will go up again aren’t realistic. It’s logic, that as next the consumer will have to pay for the miss and that means that in 2009 the recession will go on. In our world history we’ve got plenty of examples where such crises have shown their rhythm.
Companies which are used to sell there goods at a set price, can’t afford to sell them lower. (Regarding the costs that wait on the other side like: personnel expenses, purchase, etc…) Companies who provide others with their goods and have to sell them at a much lower price than before will bleed for this and are also going to save – obviously most of companies save with the employees.
Other companies with expensive products can’t sell them anymore, because their debtors can’t afford them. Also they’ll have to accept losses; they can’t hold the same turnover as in the years before.
Does it mean that we’re sliding again into a depression like 1929?
Probably ‘no’! Time has changed and knowledge has improved. Many entrepreneurs know how to handle these challenges and can even use this kind of recession to grow. More than in 1929, at least! So we won’t have the picture of a high suicide rate like then, but we’ve got the same waves coming up like at that time. Waves never come the same way. Each of you who already have surfed knows what I’m talking about. But waves belong to a cycle, a cycle like day and night; all of them are dependent to each other.
Final summery
We have to face the fact that the hard times haven’t passed by yet. On the other side, we’ve got opportunities. Like for example to invest (if you can) in companies, which their market value is deeper than the intrinsic value. They might be at risk for take-overs. But in the meantime we’ve got structured possibilities to be secure against ‘take-overs’. In other words, you can invest into such companies and can get their share much lower than they should be priced. Here some Swiss Companies: Bobst AG, Arbonia Forster AG, Feintool AG, Georg-Fischer, Rieter AG!
Logically you’ve also got other opportunities: Like investing, as a global character. –Invest in real estate, consumer goods, etc…
But don’t forget, in any area you’re involved, always think long term! Short term thinking right now is for no earthly use. –It’s like gambling in
So I’m again focused on the market out here to provide them with my services in Corporate Finance. Maybe it’s a good time for this kind of services. It might bring me some customers who are interested to stay in a long term contract to ensure their liquidity.
Finally let me tell you: Keep your chin up!
Today’s motto: The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it back in your pocket. Texas
Wednesday, 8 October 2008
A day without sunshine is like, you know, night!
Hellomotto
Again some days/weeks have past by and in the meantime I can see again light and the end of the tunnel. A great Swiss Bank is interested in my application and another fund-company as well. The good thing is, my mandate seems to pay me finally and so my income can still hold me over water till a substantial company will accept me as a new staff. Thanks God!
Unfortunately one of my best friends has been taken to the funny house (agai
n). I’ve visited him and yeah, he’s basket case! These shitty – stupid drugs! Actually he’s a genius – no joke! He writes books, poems and is composer for any kind of music between classic to modern and over jazz. But because he didn’t have a compensation at the end of the day, he started to consume drugs – every fuck’ kind of drugs! As he said, to cool down after a hard day (which is an excuse - there are other possibilities)! So finally he said once again, that he’s lucky to have me, because I’m one out of many, who he can talk with.
I gave him a bible and told him: “Markus, as you know, we both have read hundreds of books. With the time, you start to read the first chapter and you already know the end of the story. I read books from physics, like the super-string theory, up to Hamlet of William Shakespeare, but there’s one book – the one in your hand - that still is challenging me every time I read it. If you’re similar mindset like I am take the challenge and try it!” At least he said he would.
Also one of my family is quite intelligent, but kind of stupid with his life. I can’t, nor want to tell you who, but as it looks like, he also spends more time with his drug-addicted friends, than with his social environment like his family or like spending time in searching for a job. He not even wants to search for one, because he says that searching for a job is for poofs… But the guy I’m talking about isn’t that far like Markus, my friend mentioned the chapter before. (He at least accepted, that he’s in need of help)
The guy I’m talking about has got the feeling, that he’s got everything under control. –And he’s that narcistic, that he doesn’t hear on that, what people tell him. I actually still believe that he could have all under control, but he should proof it! Talking is cheep! I want to see facts! But I’m not in the position to tell him anything, because I already know his arguments. –I need to show him a better way, -if I can’t, I’m not any further than him.
I could scream and tear my hair out! With all these things conflicting me, I just can’t do anything else than stay calm. Somehow I’ve got the feeling, if I wouldn’t, no one else would around my environment. But I see again the good sides. I look upon things. I’ve also got problems, but I didn’t, or better never give up myself. If you’re tired to fight, look at the things you’re fighting for!
A phrase at the end of this post I adapted from the movie “Revolver”:
“You can just get smarter, by playing a smarter opponent!”
“You can always find a good opponent on the very last place you’d ever look!” (…Yourself…)
Today’s motto: After the event, even a fool is wise. Homer
Again some days/weeks have past by and in the meantime I can see again light and the end of the tunnel. A great Swiss Bank is interested in my application and another fund-company as well. The good thing is, my mandate seems to pay me finally and so my income can still hold me over water till a substantial company will accept me as a new staff. Thanks God!
Unfortunately one of my best friends has been taken to the funny house (agai
n). I’ve visited him and yeah, he’s basket case! These shitty – stupid drugs! Actually he’s a genius – no joke! He writes books, poems and is composer for any kind of music between classic to modern and over jazz. But because he didn’t have a compensation at the end of the day, he started to consume drugs – every fuck’ kind of drugs! As he said, to cool down after a hard day (which is an excuse - there are other possibilities)! So finally he said once again, that he’s lucky to have me, because I’m one out of many, who he can talk with.I gave him a bible and told him: “Markus, as you know, we both have read hundreds of books. With the time, you start to read the first chapter and you already know the end of the story. I read books from physics, like the super-string theory, up to Hamlet of William Shakespeare, but there’s one book – the one in your hand - that still is challenging me every time I read it. If you’re similar mindset like I am take the challenge and try it!” At least he said he would.
Also one of my family is quite intelligent, but kind of stupid with his life. I can’t, nor want to tell you who, but as it looks like, he also spends more time with his drug-addicted friends, than with his social environment like his family or like spending time in searching for a job. He not even wants to search for one, because he says that searching for a job is for poofs… But the guy I’m talking about isn’t that far like Markus, my friend mentioned the chapter before. (He at least accepted, that he’s in need of help)
The guy I’m talking about has got the feeling, that he’s got everything under control. –And he’s that narcistic, that he doesn’t hear on that, what people tell him. I actually still believe that he could have all under control, but he should proof it! Talking is cheep! I want to see facts! But I’m not in the position to tell him anything, because I already know his arguments. –I need to show him a better way, -if I can’t, I’m not any further than him.
I could scream and tear my hair out! With all these things conflicting me, I just can’t do anything else than stay calm. Somehow I’ve got the feeling, if I wouldn’t, no one else would around my environment. But I see again the good sides. I look upon things. I’ve also got problems, but I didn’t, or better never give up myself. If you’re tired to fight, look at the things you’re fighting for!
A phrase at the end of this post I adapted from the movie “Revolver”:
“You can just get smarter, by playing a smarter opponent!”
“You can always find a good opponent on the very last place you’d ever look!” (…Yourself…)
Today’s motto: After the event, even a fool is wise. Homer
Tuesday, 23 September 2008
Long time no hear!
Ciao Ragazzi
For good one month, I didn’t write any posts. Some of you already started to write me on my email to hear or see, how live goes on around here…
I didn’t want to break or even drop the blog. –I just had “fucking” much to do! :-D
In the meantime, I faced pretty many discrepancies in my life. Things like: Hidden debts I didn’t want to see. Job-illusions on some applied jobs… and so on!
In this good one month you didn’t hear from me, I suffered many situations, -again. Try to call my creditors for an arrangement and finally had to face, that I can’t even match the agreement with them, because in fact I just have got a lousy mandate-income, that effectively pays my flat and daily expenses and that’s it! No other areas can be balanced! –Neither the insurances, nor the residual bills like phone, health fund, etc…
As I could take out from some of your letters to me, some of you guys are in similar situations and want to know, how I go on right now… -well my dear fellows, I’m going to start a 2nd job. What else? In this kind of situation, I’m very pragmatic and steady. In other words that means, that I have to move on – so I can reach a monthly income – in any given way (that’s ethic and morally fungible) that holds me over water. –And if honestly some of you guys are in the same situation, what is your suppose? Fact is, that as long I haven’t got a position within a job that’s adequate and pays me the right way, I need to organize a way to reach the standard I’m in! Right?! ;-)
Some of you also asked me, how I can stay ‘All-Time’ that positive… -The answer is: I DON’T!!!
C’mon! You don’t believe that there’s really a person, that’s all day long, 24/7 happy and gay?! The difference is, when you’re down or depressive or just in bad mood, to catch yourself again – or in bad case not…
The difference I’m talking about is: the time span!
If you’re really in the same situation, stop finding excuses why your situation is different! Stop starting sentence with “BUT”! Be straight with yourself. It might be hard (you bet it is!), but in the end it’s your life you’ve to deal with! If there’s something I learned in the meantime, so it’s the one single thing I give you now: No other than you will move your ass – your life! It’s your/my own responsibility! –Neither your mummy, nor daddy, nor sister or brother, nor your friends, nor any other! I don’t say, that to have a good environment doesn’t help (rather the opposite), but in fact, you can’t count on any else than you! That’s one of the hardest fact I had to swallow in the past, but it made me being hip again! Quite honest, you haven’t got an other choice, if you’re really in the same or similar situation like me…
To the end, I want to commit that I’ll hold up the blog as long as …(???) ! :-)
Don’t be afraid, I won’t stop it that soon.
Today’s motto: I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one. Mark Twain
Friday, 22 August 2008
Can’t keep my ass quiet!
Saludos
Since my last post many things already have changed again. 
Somehow I got a voice in me that conduct me to the right course. The day after the last post I went to the social department to fight for my right. I came into her office and brought all my documents with to proof that the adjudication was wrong and I’m allowed to receive the claim. She just opened the first page, read the letter and approved my claim! You may say I’ve been flabbergasted! –All my trembling if I’ll pass through this situation, all my fears about my existence – just blown away in less than five minutes! Unfortunately I won’t receive the amount I first expected, but at least I am in right! Thanks, God!
Starting this week, I’ve been on a one-on-one with a headhunter I already know since years. It has been very deflating! He showed up, that within my last jobs I didn’t give quite a good state for my CV. He said that going away from the bank into a SMB wasn’t a good choice. Right now he’ll look for a bridge solution within a bank till he can find something substantial for me, respectively my education. He said at least it was good to go for the BBA, but my last employer isn’t a good address and it might be challenging to find an adequate job. Finally he came up with addresses like, JP Morgan, Bank Pictet, etc. where he’ll look for this bridge solution-job! Hopefully, he’ll be successful! ;-)
Next week I’ve got again some other interviews with large companies. I expect, that for a bridge-solution I’ll find probably any kind of job within the next weeks.
My financial situation is still very challenging, but I could take up different arrangements with my debtors and actually all where willing to find a way. All beside one! The insurances are still waiting with their answer… -But also with them I’m actually looking forward for a suitable arrangement. I’ve got a kind of stance regarding these debts.
“If you handle arrangement with your debtors and face the debts, you control them. If you don’t handle any arrangement and don’t face the debts, -they control you!”
Right now I listen to the song: nobodies fault but mine
So it’s in my interest to handle them, better now than in future!
Apropos, one of the debtee was that kind, to decreed my debts in the height of CHF 5’000! She said, that because I’m willing to find the arrangement and approached her, she remit all my debts. Imagine (!) if I didn’t have faced my debts and if I wouldn’t have approached her, I’d never received something like this!
And here I am. Face the fact, but stay positive in your approach. I believe that I’m standing right on the brink of making it! Somehow the voice in me leads me through this whole situation and I believe that in the end it will be worthwhile. –Fantastic, now the song: here comes the sun just started!
If you ask me, how I do right now, I’d say I do quite good! I don’t get caught up; I look forward and believe with pure heart it will come again better!
Oh, regarding getting better, my private projects are very near to close! I can’t do any actions, but the parties confirmed almost all of the deals. I guess it works if you cross your fingers for my projects and me. Thank you & keep it up, please! :-D
Today’s motto: It is often easier to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission. Grace Hopper
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