I like you. People say I’ve got no taste, but I like you.

Hi guys!

Actually I’ve got much news for you, but on the other hand, it’s not really news, rather some impressions I’ve gained in the meantime.

Last weekend my mandate invited me to Stuttgart (Salach), Germany for a “balance sheet analysis” – seminar. As you can see on the pix, it’s been quite impressive. I had a suite and our chef was titled as the best cook in 1989 with five stars. The seminar also gave me a good backup to my old knowledge in analysis. Some tools, how you can find out the intrinsic value of a company even showed me an easier way than how I was told in my studies.

Overall I had a very good impression of the whole weekend there, but my honey doesn’t share the same emotional feelings like I do. She’s got the feeling, that I should look further for another job – one that is more substantial as a mandate job – well, probably she’s right. But I’ve to deal with the things I’ve got.

Let’s also talk about the world economic crisis

My own opinion is based on the economical know-how I usurped in my studies. So let’s start with the facts:

- Real estate crisis in the US started already in 2007

- The finance and banking areas started to shake in 2008

- Commodity prices all over the world turned down and had a volatile growth/loss within the last months

- Even if it’s not that strong published through the news, the unemployment data in the last months has raised

- The pledging of securities are no longer that distanced from the real money market as it used to be

- Main pledges of securities are countries and banks (incl. funds, insurances, etc…)

- …and many things more…

So what is my summery of all this?

Economics who say the crisis is more or less over and soon the market will go up again aren’t realistic. It’s logic, that as next the consumer will have to pay for the miss and that means that in 2009 the recession will go on. In our world history we’ve got plenty of examples where such crises have shown their rhythm.

Companies which are used to sell there goods at a set price, can’t afford to sell them lower. (Regarding the costs that wait on the other side like: personnel expenses, purchase, etc…) Companies who provide others with their goods and have to sell them at a much lower price than before will bleed for this and are also going to save – obviously most of companies save with the employees.

Other companies with expensive products can’t sell them anymore, because their debtors can’t afford them. Also they’ll have to accept losses; they can’t hold the same turnover as in the years before.

Does it mean that we’re sliding again into a depression like 1929?

Probably ‘no’! Time has changed and knowledge has improved. Many entrepreneurs know how to handle these challenges and can even use this kind of recession to grow. More than in 1929, at least! So we won’t have the picture of a high suicide rate like then, but we’ve got the same waves coming up like at that time. Waves never come the same way. Each of you who already have surfed knows what I’m talking about. But waves belong to a cycle, a cycle like day and night; all of them are dependent to each other.

Final summery

We have to face the fact that the hard times haven’t passed by yet. On the other side, we’ve got opportunities. Like for example to invest (if you can) in companies, which their market value is deeper than the intrinsic value. They might be at risk for take-overs. But in the meantime we’ve got structured possibilities to be secure against ‘take-overs’. In other words, you can invest into such companies and can get their share much lower than they should be priced. Here some Swiss Companies: Bobst AG, Arbonia Forster AG, Feintool AG, Georg-Fischer, Rieter AG!

Logically you’ve also got other opportunities: Like investing, as a global character. –Invest in real estate, consumer goods, etc…

But don’t forget, in any area you’re involved, always think long term! Short term thinking right now is for no earthly use. –It’s like gambling in Las Vegas with 10 bucks! (Like a drop in the ocean)

So I’m again focused on the market out here to provide them with my services in Corporate Finance. Maybe it’s a good time for this kind of services. It might bring me some customers who are interested to stay in a long term contract to ensure their liquidity.

Finally let me tell you: Keep your chin up!

Today’s motto: The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it back in your pocket. Texas Wisdom